Conversation

Long-termism is a kind of minimalism. The longer the planning horizon beyond a point, the fewer assumptions you can trust and the simpler things get. There’s a peak of planning complexity about 5 years out and weirdly that’s the horizon a lot of planning targets.
1
79
Avoid 4-6 year horizons. You don’t get the tractability of short term <3y or the simplification of >6y. 1 year is easy, 50 years is easy. 5 years sucks.
2
29