Long-termism is a kind of minimalism. The longer the planning horizon beyond a point, the fewer assumptions you can trust and the simpler things get. There’s a peak of planning complexity about 5 years out and weirdly that’s the horizon a lot of planning targets.
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Planning is not prediction. Prediction generally gets monotonically harder with time. But planning gets easier because agency wanes andctgeres fewer meaningful things you can do the farther out you look.
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I’m not a serious long-termist the way long now people are. It mainly interests me as a filtering mechanism for “important”. If you can’t see X making a difference in 50y the only reason to pay attention to it now is pleasure or pain avoidance.
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I do want to go see the long now clock eventually though. Maybe scratch some graffiti nearby. I hope they’ve created a rock wall for graffiti. Rock blockchain. Rockchain.
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What feels like good long term thinking to me feels oddly similar to that pleasant exhausted relaxation you feel the day you start recovering from a cold. There’s a kind of simplifying clarity that sets in as the high-energy bullshit drops away.
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I have a cold right now. Looking forward to the recovery day. I usually get a creative breakthrough or two on long-term projects on cold-recovery days. As above so below.
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End of conversation
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“What do you see yourself doing in 5 years?”
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Not a clue. Probably still here if this thing is still around.
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