"My big feeling was I just missed it, I missed the whole thing. It had happened in the ’80s, and I got here too late." @pmarca
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Definitely could be right, but I thought his point was extending to what's possible to build as much as the region its built in. I think some people confuse their personal jadedness level with opportunity. Don't disagree at all that the region is at risk!
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I’m definitely a bit jaded, but also aware of it and compensating for it. But I’ve been through 2-3 cycles of both personal jadedness and business ups/downs. This feels different from those.
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I'm surprised that financial oversupply is a risk factor -- why is that?
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It takes time to invest, and finding the same return rate for a larger pile of $ over the same horizon takes longer. So larger deals are oversubscribed and smaller ones get starved. Think “smart money”. If a single VC is deploying 1B instead of 100mm, each $ is 1/10th as smart
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