A palpable feeling that the party is over in the Bay these days—not that there’s no more VC money (there’s more than ever) but that there’s nothing to build except dull B2B SaaS apps.
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It’s a good point about tech in general but not particular regions. Regions have died as tech hubs before after a few cycles of ups and downs. It happened to NY, it happened to Detroit. Housing undersupply and financial oversupply are 2 structural indicators.
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Definitely could be right, but I thought his point was extending to what's possible to build as much as the region its built in. I think some people confuse their personal jadedness level with opportunity. Don't disagree at all that the region is at risk!
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I’m definitely a bit jaded, but also aware of it and compensating for it. But I’ve been through 2-3 cycles of both personal jadedness and business ups/downs. This feels different from those.
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I'm surprised that financial oversupply is a risk factor -- why is that?
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It takes time to invest, and finding the same return rate for a larger pile of $ over the same horizon takes longer. So larger deals are oversubscribed and smaller ones get starved. Think “smart money”. If a single VC is deploying 1B instead of 100mm, each $ is 1/10th as smart
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