Shit, just realized why the turn in the Syrian conflict seems so uncannily familiar. It rhymes very strongly with the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in the 80s (which led, among other things, to the Kashmir insurgency).
This is not a good rhyme.
Conversation
Roughly, the 1980s/now mapping would be (purely structural balance of power, with no value judgments of politics/ideologies in play)
US = USSR
Russia = US
Kurds = Mujahideen
Syria = Afghanistan
Turkey = India
Pakistan = Iraq+ISIS
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Americans of course have a very... interesting memory of what happened. Basically, Rambo 3 (1988). Noble US supplies noble Mujahideen to force evil empire to withdraw. Led by Rambo.
The withdrawal was 1988-1989. Kashmiri insurgency began like 5 minutes later.
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The one difference here is that ISIS and Kurds are enemies, whereas in the 1980s, Pakistan was the supply chain to the Mujahideen, and later the "handler" as it metastasized into Taliban, Kashmir foreign terror outfits and eventually Al Qaeda. It was a godawful mess. Still is.
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It is really grimly hilarious how much narratives can influence how you think. I remember watching Rambo 3 and of course rooting for the "good guys" and hey, 3 years later, the people the movie portrayed had turned into the real-life bad guys in Indian newspaper headlines.
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I think the Kurds are basically screwed btw. They do not have the deep bench ideological and civilizational capability of Wahabbism to back them for decades. They appear to be a genuine cultural island. Everybody around them appears to have their knives out for them.
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I hope this localized analogy does not indicate a US collapse similar to USSR collapse. I think not. That withdrawal was caused by a desperate attempt to contain an unraveling of empire gracefully (and failing). This is an own-goal by one moron from a position of strength.
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I’m so a product of the 80s it’s not even funny. Age 6-16 is like the only dentist anchor zone.
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They've also been resilient as hell in the face of a hostile regime & Turkish bombing, and their proto-state with Libertarian-Munipalism characteristics fought ISIS to a standstill with little foreign support. Their fighters might be strategically retreating for now. We'll see.
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kurds are a huge label, many kurds are turkish, and many kurds are muslim
some of the factions have an ideology which is very left leaning
democratic confederalism or some flavour of libertarian socialism.
most peoples resolution on it is low AF


