What would failure-rate adjusted valuations of startups look like?
VC-firm-level returns are meaningful, but it’s weird that individual valuations are a vanity metric. Valuation: price at which you sell a % to a private group that is expecting median investment to be worthless.
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The VC funding is already failure-adjusted. The “risk-adjusted” price for a die-roll where a 1 pays 12:1 and >1 pays zero? Just because it’s high variance doesn’t mean the avg result is meaningless. Unless the firm is overleveraged, but that’s not about the individual bet value.
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Yeah see follow on tweets. I’m objecting to precisely the use of individual valuations to talk about the company rather than the portfolio value of the VC (which is fine)

