Conversation

Replying to
Almost nothing makes the cut. Health, close relationships, math skills, hands-on technology skills: these are more important than, and crucially, not future-fragile dependent on, the course of the great weirding. Everything else depends on how the GW evolves.
1
19
Betting on social media, going long on it, is in a sense a bet that the Great Weirding will gain energy and creative-destruction power. Whatever happens, will happen here. You’re on the ground floor of the future here.
1
15
If you make a list of everything else you could be doing and sort it into 2 piles: depends on/does not depend on, Great Weirding future, almost everything is in the first pile. The second pile is the things I listed.
3
4
Another test: would making X “social media context-aware” make a difference to what’s hard about X? X = Writing a book? Yeah, a social-media-aware book is hard in a very different way. X = Designing a Mars rocket? Not really, though Elon Musk tweets about his.
1
5
If social media could alter the nature of X, then investing in the social media context of X sufficiently is higher value than waldenponding to do unreconstructed-X. If not, then it’s a hedge to GW. Go for it. Solve the hard thing about X. It’ll have value whatever the GW does.
2
14