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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe 12 Apr 2019
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      1/ How to Size Your Investments (AKA A brief summary of what I have learned about the Kelly Criterion)pic.twitter.com/b6HiNduUSw

      8 replies 41 retweets 186 likes
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    2. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe 12 Apr 2019
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      2/ I initially discovered the Kelly Criterion in @nntaleb's book, The Black Swanpic.twitter.com/6LFRgxbNcK

      1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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    3. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe 12 Apr 2019
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      3/ As Taleb pointed out, it is not enough to be correct as an investor, you must be correct in the right amounts, yet many investors don't think about it that way.

      3 replies 0 retweets 32 likes
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    4. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe 12 Apr 2019
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      4/ If you make a little money on many trades but lose everything on one big trade, then your "win rate" may be 95%, but you are still broke because you were "picking up nickels in front of a bulldoze"

      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 19 Sep 2019
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      Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe

      Here's an interesting non-financial example of this. After the Vikram lander crashed on the Chandrayaan mission recently, there was an effort to spin it to boost morale, saying "95% of mission objectives have still been met, so the mission is not a failure."

      2:24 PM - 19 Sep 2019
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      • Taylor Pearson Rahul Ramchandani edwardrooster
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 19 Sep 2019
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          Replying to @vgr @TaylorPearsonMe

          Clearly, whatever the official accounting of goals, psychologically, 95% of the mission value emotionally was sticking the landing safely and getting data back from the lander/rover. It doesn't matter that the rest of the mission objectives were checked off. The mission failed.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 19 Sep 2019
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          Replying to @vgr @TaylorPearsonMe

          And you could see this in the faces of the mission control staff who had worked for years for these few minutes to go right, and it didn't. Many were crying.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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