Hehe you necessarily have to overindex on the past it’s the only information there is “Future is like the past” is the only assumption you can make. What else could it be like?
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Replying to @vgr
You assume certain things from the past hold but others don’t, make a causal model, or do scenario analysis. Future = past should be the prior, but you can update from there.
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Replying to @WilliamAEden
Updates are just based on fresher samples of the past. Definitionally you can’t update from the future.
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Replying to @vgr
I update on both new observations and good arguments. I believe we can predict the future better than chance.
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Replying to @WilliamAEden
I’m making a metaphysical point not a practical one. Even the most successful predictions are knowledge about the past not the future. Predicting the future is not the same as knowing it.
12:05 AM - 17 Sep 2019
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