Conversation

Hehe you necessarily have to overindex on the past it’s the only information there is “Future is like the past” is the only assumption you can make. What else could it be like?
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You assume certain things from the past hold but others don’t, make a causal model, or do scenario analysis. Future = past should be the prior, but you can update from there.
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I’m making a metaphysical point not a practical one. Even the most successful predictions are knowledge about the past not the future. Predicting the future is not the same as knowing it.
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