Inconsistency over ensemble... depends. It can be fox over hedgehog thinking style. Depending on how loose+broad the ensemble under consideration is, I actually trust it more. By Tetlock’s work, time/ensemble might in fact be coupled via a sort of superforecasting ergodicity
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Ensemble consistency in hedgehog sense is dogmaticism. Grand unified theory preference.
Coupling happens via fact that pragmatic world views are rarely purist dogmas. They are perpetual beta with some inconsistency at any time.
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"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines." — Emerson
This effect I think is about both ensemble and time consistency. Rigid dogma across ensemble leading to inflexibility across time.
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I don’t think it’s just a social effect. There’s an epistemological component. Situationist models have salient local contextual data that might be intractable to make consistent beyond a “it depends” or “case by case” vacuous ensemble consistency.
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Depends on the scope, doesn't it? If our belief set consists of 1 belief like "all traffic offenders should be given a ticket" you might hit 90%. If it consists of a looser meta belief like "treat people kindly" that stands in for a dozen conflicting behavior norms, it gets messy
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