Inconsistency over ensemble... depends. It can be fox over hedgehog thinking style. Depending on how loose+broad the ensemble under consideration is, I actually trust it more. By Tetlock’s work, time/ensemble might in fact be coupled via a sort of superforecasting ergodicity
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Is the situation more stable in time or case-space? It is not clear to me that different default assumptions for time/case-space are warranted. Your original heuristic amounts to "beliefs are more likely to be invalidated by new data over time than by new cases in scope"
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Of course, invalidation via new cases also takes time, since case-space takes time to traverse, but you might never explore. So there is a time-scale separation. Backpacking to meet different types of people and broaden your mind is more traversing case space than time for eg.
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