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Inconsistency over ensemble... depends. It can be fox over hedgehog thinking style. Depending on how loose+broad the ensemble under consideration is, I actually trust it more. By Tetlock’s work, time/ensemble might in fact be coupled via a sort of superforecasting ergodicity
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Ensemble consistency in hedgehog sense is dogmaticism. Grand unified theory preference. Coupling happens via fact that pragmatic world views are rarely purist dogmas. They are perpetual beta with some inconsistency at any time.
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"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines." — Emerson This effect I think is about both ensemble and time consistency. Rigid dogma across ensemble leading to inflexibility across time.
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I don’t think it’s just a social effect. There’s an epistemological component. Situationist models have salient local contextual data that might be intractable to make consistent beyond a “it depends” or “case by case” vacuous ensemble consistency.
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Depends on the scope, doesn't it? If our belief set consists of 1 belief like "all traffic offenders should be given a ticket" you might hit 90%. If it consists of a looser meta belief like "treat people kindly" that stands in for a dozen conflicting behavior norms, it gets messy
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Low-paradigm fields like modern anthropology have a particularist bias and suspicion of even empiricist triage theorizing of the "90%" type, let alone grand conceptual theories. While naive economists often have unreasonably consistent belief in market efficiency.
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A good way to consider ergodicity potential here is to simply think of case space as a different kind of time. You have a belief B on day t, based on case k. B(t,k) might need an update both for B(t+1,k) and for B(t, k+1).
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Is the situation more stable in time or case-space? It is not clear to me that different default assumptions for time/case-space are warranted. Your original heuristic amounts to "beliefs are more likely to be invalidated by new data over time than by new cases in scope"
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