Inconsistency over ensemble... depends. It can be fox over hedgehog thinking style. Depending on how loose+broad the ensemble under consideration is, I actually trust it more. By Tetlock’s work, time/ensemble might in fact be coupled via a sort of superforecasting ergodicity
Depends on the scope, doesn't it? If our belief set consists of 1 belief like "all traffic offenders should be given a ticket" you might hit 90%. If it consists of a looser meta belief like "treat people kindly" that stands in for a dozen conflicting behavior norms, it gets messy
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Low-paradigm fields like modern anthropology have a particularist bias and suspicion of even empiricist triage theorizing of the "90%" type, let alone grand conceptual theories. While naive economists often have unreasonably consistent belief in market efficiency.
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A good way to consider ergodicity potential here is to simply think of case space as a different kind of time. You have a belief B on day t, based on case k. B(t,k) might need an update both for B(t+1,k) and for B(t, k+1).
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That is exactly the kind of top-down general model you pointed out as potentially shaky, because now you're going beyond ensemble-level induction from phenomenology to analytic values-based defaults (which is a valid part of belief maintenance too of course)
End of conversation
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