Inconsistency over ensemble... depends. It can be fox over hedgehog thinking style. Depending on how loose+broad the ensemble under consideration is, I actually trust it more. By Tetlock’s work, time/ensemble might in fact be coupled via a sort of superforecasting ergodicity
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"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines." — Emerson This effect I think is about both ensemble and time consistency. Rigid dogma across ensemble leading to inflexibility across time.
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