I recently learned a rule of thumb: a day in the ICU translates to a week in recovery. The west has been in the ICU for 3 years, we’re talking about 21y of recovery already If you think that’s an over-estimate, the former USSR has still not recovered from ICU years (1988-92)
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Trump years have been ICU-like not because of the severity of the crisis itself, but because of the weakened resistance of the body politic (aging population, slowing innovation, climate change as a growing infection risk...). A younger, less stressed body would bounce back.
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Making a social organism metaphor precise is fraught with risks, but I’d map institutional order to major organs (central bank = heart, political system = brain), circulation systems to public health, and construct indicators.