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I recently learned a rule of thumb: a day in the ICU translates to a week in recovery. The west has been in the ICU for 3 years, we’re talking about 21y of recovery already If you think that’s an over-estimate, the former USSR has still not recovered from ICU years (1988-92)
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I also learned that ICU care is as simple as it is brutally traumatic. It is the body being manipulated at laws-of-physics level rather than advanced pharmacology. Pressure, volume, oxygen, nutrients, excreta. The biochemistry is brute force carpet bombing, not smart bombs.
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The human body is a finely tuned and delicate piece of equipment. It’s not built to withstand such brutal intervention for long. We rely on our brains to create a narrow comfort range around ourselves.
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The body politic is also the same. QE is like ventilator support Oxygen is reliable news Pressure regulation is logistics Etc etc. Not a fan of social organism metaphors for advanced stuff but at ICU first principles level it seems to work.
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There is a fantastic book called 4th turning. Cycles of 80 years in 4 distinct periods. We currently are in a crisis which started say in 2005-07 and would probably end in 2027. Big established political powers are wiped out. (See UK and traditional parties in France)
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I like this idea but can you define “the ICU”? (Was China was “in the ICU” 1840s-1970s and so we shouldn’t expect recovery until the year 3000 or so?) (Was Germany in the ICU only 1942-46, or 1933-45? Or 1917-51?)
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