Subconsciously he realizes he’s missing something. Hence the Bezos Derangement Syndrome.
Unlike Bezos, he has no clue how to play in a world shaped by a developing China (a good thing for the world) and actually win.
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Why Nations Fail is still probably the best read on how global economic leadership is actually won, by creating win-win where you win more than others. The US is increasingly starting to look like the failed state examples in that book.
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When I travel in India, I can always tell when shopkeepers are trying to scam me, since I grew up there and have an idea of what things should cost. But because I earn in USD, I often just pay rather than bargain. It’s not worth the trouble for me to beat the “unfair” scam.
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For me, getting clever and taking 15 minutes to bargain a $10 item down to the local “fair” price of $5, when it costs $50 in the US, feels like a waste of time. For the vendor, it’s a successful 2x scam. For me, it’s an 80% off bargain that I don’t feel like driving up to 90%
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Foolish to negotiate for the “principle”when you have the power of vast economic superiority. You can let counterparty think they got away with something. You have to be really insecure to waste time to get the locally fair price and show the counterparty you’re not a sucker.
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But it’s really really dumb to actually fritter away the advantage that allows you to ignore the two-big shenanigans by much weaker players.
Of course, you have to keep an eye on them as they strengthen, and the deltas start to go past your indifference threshold.
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But the relative and growing “strength” of China is, IMO vastly overstated due to lots of factors. Ranging from population effects to fake state numbers to deep fragility swept under the rug. Being treated as bigger than they are is a big win for them. That’s taking it to make it
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Zero. Admittedly a blindspot. Going by remote analysis and comparative analysis with India which shares several features. As well as consulting work with companies that do a ton of business in/with China.
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