When humans assert inconsistent views across time, 90% of the time they’re being dishonest, 10% of the time they’re sincerely updating their beliefs
When nature gives you inconsistent results over time for an empirical probe, 100% of the time you are missing something
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One of the easiest ways to go wrong is to apply human inconsistency defenses against nature. If you can’t deal with nature drip-feeding you noisy truths, you can’t learn at all
