Venkatesh Rao

Incredibly it was still at shuttle stop with my bag in it. Whew. Not only was all our documents in it, but (and this was super dumb of me) also our crypto hardware key AND wallet passphrase card in one bag. Massive single point of failure. Very very dumb. I got lucky.

Case 2: My father-in-law-law is currently in ICU, sedated and on ventilator, seriously ill. Wife and I got all HIS docs from his rural, somewhat insecure home for safety. She puts it all in her handbag. This morning, she lost it. All our cards, car keys, all FIL’s stuff.

3h of panic. We cancel/block our cards but we don’t even know what’s in FIL’s pile: credit cards etc. MIL doesn’t deal with paperwork so she doesn’t know. We wrack brains trying to think how to secure his stuff with him in ICU (me back in LA, her still at hospital in Michigan)

Again we get very lucky. Bag turned into hospital lost and found, with $60 in cash gone, but rest intact. Could have gone very, very badly.

The potent risk/fragility is a combination of a) crisis or stress situation where you’re sloppy b) legit need to temporarily secure assets in centralized ways (transport etc) c) confounding circumstances (medical emergencies etc) Perfect storm for errors piling on errors

I have other smaller examples. Once a friend was in an accident and I had to drive him to hospital. Under the emergency stress, hey, I hit another car in my hurry to back my own car out. Minor bump/scratch, but still.

In general, moral of the story, things are more likely to go very wrong when they are already going slightly wrong. The more complex the system/environment, the more crises will cause such 2nd order failure interactions.

I have no problem admitting I’m not exactly the best person in an emergency/crisis. I’m not awful, but I’m not a good first pick, shall we say. I’m best in slower, less urgent situations where there’s time to think.