I feel like I can predict the future personal trajectories of 2 out of 3 people under 25 given a decent signal like a few hundred tweets. This is very depressing. But the 1 in 3 I can’t predict give me hope.
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Interesting that people *want* me to hazard actual predictions: if you’re in the predictable set it is by definition not a positive prediction (since it’s depressing to me) and knowing it actually increases probability I’ll end up being right.
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Rational under-25 attitude is to ignore 40+ predictions and hope all older pattern classifiers are wrong about you. The chances you’ll heed a negative prediction as a warning as opposed to perversely doubling down on the path as a fuck-you to oldie expectations are low.
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I’ll share what I think puts people in unpredictable 1/3 though: paying attention to something new happening in the environment that is itself unpredictable. Humans are inherently predictable. What makes them unpredictable is paying attention to unpredictable non-human signals
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A 45y old looking at a 25y old seriously tracking a legit new thing is like a camera trying to run facial recognition on someone wearing one of those cyberpunk IR hats designed to blind cameras. Basic weakness in middle-aged classifier is it’s trained on 20y out-of-date samples
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You could write all your predictions down, and do what Mark Twain did: give instructions to wait til everyone in the book is dead (he used 100 years) and then publish it. I was going to put a link here from
@Independent, but their website has too many ads and is really annoying. -
Heh I don’t care enough about most people to bother. It’s not like I’m a talent scout or something
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Exactly
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And even then, the few wise 40+ usually have their hands full with families and cannot lend a hand.
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Teasing out the answer to one question will get you most of the way there: Are they interested in learning new things?
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