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“The likelihood of a major discovery increases steadily through one’s 20s and 30s and then declines through one’s 40s, 50s, and 60s.... The likelihood of producing a major innovation at age 70 is approximately what it was at age 20—almost nonexistent.” theatlantic.com/magazine/archi
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BUT this prioritizes discovery over everything else -- which is what outsiders and simpletons think, but no insiders! There's also REAL value to consolidation and better explanations, which come later in a career -- but it's much more difficult to track those.