Agatha Christie in fact often figures out how to make the most likely person, the spouse, the killer. Even cues it up with Poirot declaring, like a good Bayesian, that it’s most likely the spouse. She takes pains to explicitly have Poirot regect strangers/burglars/servants.
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So far historical revisionism has usually been an exercise in applied political philosophy. Ought guiding the rewriting of is. But I strongly suspect we can start to do pre-ideological revisionist thinking on purely technical grounds, relatively mechanically. Not sure how though.
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It will be like a different kind of mystery, the procedural. Historigraphy is moving from cozy era where a genius tells the important story in a more surprising way, to one where a set of techniques, applied with discipline, grind through and get the murderer. Machine solves.
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I think we’re still gonna draw dinosaur on their hind legs and call them terrible lizards
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