A language without an esoteric tier will soon degenerate and die in a different way: by becoming a language mostly for stupid people thinking stupid thoughts. A preliminary stage is a divide of growing mutual unintelligibility emerging between high/low versions of a language.
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This divide is starkly visible in all Indian languages (a bad thing) but barely visible in English (a sign of health). A scholarly speaker speaking “shudh” (pure) Hindi sounds almost like Sanskrit and incomprehensible the way Latin does to average English speakers.
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Conversely, a full-blown use of a deep-slang street version of Hindi, like Bambaiyya (think strong Geordie or AAVE in relation to English), can be almost as unintelligible to people schooled exclusively in official-sanskritized “high-culture” version, like many South Indians are.
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Prediction: tailwinds of digitization, auto-translation, robust street use, and demographics notwithstanding, most 2nd tier languages are going to die of stupidification because they are below critical mass of creatives working in high culture and keeping it close to low culture
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Coda: I found a translator partner for German version of Breaking Smart easily. In French, I was approached by a French digital agency. In Spanish, I had a couple of individuals interested and an incomplete translation exists it the project didn’t get done.
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This tells you the limits of informal, extra-institutional translation possibilities. Traditionally published books that are reasonably successful will easily appear in 6-7 languages. Self-published ones like my book Tempo (~5k copies, so low end of “successful”) are unlikely to.
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A lot of the value of existence of institutionalized high culture layers in languages is: cultural globalization. When high culture dies, books stop being translated into other languages as the translation gap between self-published and traditionally published demonstrates.
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Can easily happen the other way round. 2nd or 3rd tier languages can survive and thrive because of cultural regionalization. When region becomes more important, there will be a growing demand for something that can positively define identity.
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Take the example of Catalan. A language as definition what's special about a region. Highly subsidized by regional government, yes, but that's what governments do to demonstrate uniqueness.
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If national institutions and narratives continue to be the main source of identity, there is little need for investment in language culture. But I wouldn't bet on that outcome.
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I’d say for a language to thrive the effort pie chart is:
60% street use and texting/signage/ads
20% free market mass oral media (video/audio/music)
10% free market textual long form
9.9% scholarly work in universities free of state interference
0.1% direct state effort
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