I think the keyword you want is Galton-Watson process: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galton%E2%80%93Watson_process …
-
-
-
Just taught a discussion on these today. The math is quite beautiful and uses moment generating functions. Turns out that composing the mgf of the offspring distribution with itself n many times, evaluating at 0 and taking n to infinity yields the extinction probability.
- 3 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
Not the answer to your question, but given enough generations - you will eventually be the ancestor of all living humans, or none. (assuming there are no completely isolated populations)
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Where do they live. Probably the environment has a big impact.
-
I was thinking of mitochondrial eve, so for some people like that or Genghis Khan it would be a big outlier. And consider infant mortality rates in pre-history.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
You need more assumptions, in particular what are the ancestors doing? And what's the death pattern? I mean if you say that you have just one kid, that kid always has just one kid, and no-one dies before they reproduce, then lineage is forever. 1/
-
You're assuming (at least one) SOMETHING that cuts the lineage short, but it's not clear from your tweet what that hidden assumption is. Is the point girls vs boys and surname? Is it a DISTRIBUTION of kids with mean of N, but not exactly N? Is it an assumption of early death? //
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.