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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 21 Apr 2019
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    Struck me that we don’t sufficiently distinguish between 2 kinds of risks: 1. Risk of failure 2. Risk of victory that is only revealed to be pyrrhic in hindsight when true costs are revealed Most of the risk for reasonably talented and competent people is type 2.

    9:52 AM - 21 Apr 2019
    • 44 Retweets
    • 220 Likes
    • Herr Dr Mr Modern Major General brrr Seitz Brian Holdefehr Randy Lubin Alex Schleber 👽😷 Isamu Hartman Ankit Kumar krishna panyam Agrim Singh (82%) Jody Shenn still doesn’t trust 2020
    11 replies 44 retweets 220 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 21 Apr 2019
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        Nothing worth doing presents a price estimate up front. All you can know is whether you can afford the price of irrevocable commitment. After that it’s do X or bust. Changing your mind or quitting beyond the point of true cost legibility is almost as costly as pushing through.

        1 reply 3 retweets 30 likes
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      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 21 Apr 2019
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        Many successes we end up living with are the result of thinking at some point: I’ve already paid 99% of a sunk cost and I’d rather have something rather than nothing to show for it by paying the last 1% even if it isn’t truly worth it

        1 reply 0 retweets 26 likes
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      4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 21 Apr 2019
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        Every significant success is explicitly chosen at the final moment. This last step involves trivial skill and marginal effort. It is merely the decision to actually accept the prize and therefore commit to living with the success. The cost has been incurred but still illegible.

        1 reply 0 retweets 29 likes
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      5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 21 Apr 2019
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        Chances are you won’t know whether the prize was worth the price until you’ve lived with the success for long enough for both to be integrated into your identity and you become the fully transformed product of both the effort and reward. You are a series of price+prize deltas.

        2 replies 2 retweets 54 likes
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      6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 21 Apr 2019
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        Big life level-ups: graduations, marriages, parenthood, home ownership, boat ownership all seem to be of this type. You’ll either love or hate the growth delta based on whether prize-price is revealed in retrospect to be negative or positive, once it’s in your bones.

        4 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
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      7. End of conversation
      1. shaaver‏ @sishaaver 21 Apr 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        This is a fortune cookie

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Ritwik Priya‏ @ritwik_priya 21 Apr 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        Mind expanding formulation. Opportunity cost is unknown, and is everything.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1.  🌎 🌍 🌏๔єภเคɭรђ๏ฬภ 🐓‏ @shownde 21 Apr 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        Seems like John Lewis Gaddis comes to similar conclusions in _On Grand Strategy_

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Henry Vasquez  🌆‏ @hvasquez 21 Apr 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        Having founded 3 startups (and a few side businesses) in the past 10 years, the thing that worries me most is wasting time on losing / mediocre bets.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Henry Vasquez  🌆‏ @hvasquez 21 Apr 2019
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        Replying to @hvasquez @vgr

        The efficiency and signal strength of bets becomes my focus. I don't mind losing <$50k if it's <6 months.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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