Hmm... the smaller the scale, the more realistic apocalyptic scenarios are. I'm skeptical of "all human civilization will end", but countries, sure. Cities, double sure. Neighborhoods, you can practically plan around their death/life cycles.
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yeah possibly lindy effect with time transposed to spatial scale somehow via an ergodic assumption perhaps
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I would actually think cities have a longer lifespan than nations, due to their concentrated value. Cities in Eastern Europe have changed hands several times since the era of the Renaissance, and the Dark Ages was a mess.
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Nuclear war remains a possibility, and would likely at least drastically change society for the worse.
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And as state actors get more technologies whose destructive capabilities rival those of nukes, apocalyptic disasters become more likely. Biotech and AGI both might get us there
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A lot of smaller textile towns around NC/VA are already post-apocalyptic






