A lot of smaller textile towns around NC/VA are already post-apocalyptic
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is this a magnitude-4 insight?
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Is this Lindy?
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yeah possibly lindy effect with time transposed to spatial scale somehow via an ergodic assumption perhaps
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I would actually think cities have a longer lifespan than nations, due to their concentrated value. Cities in Eastern Europe have changed hands several times since the era of the Renaissance, and the Dark Ages was a mess.
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The big cities, yes. The random little towns, no.
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Countries for sure, cities less so.
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The world won't end... ... but worlds end all the time. Coming eventually to a neighborhood near you.
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Nuclear war remains a possibility, and would likely at least drastically change society for the worse.
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And as state actors get more technologies whose destructive capabilities rival those of nukes, apocalyptic disasters become more likely. Biotech and AGI both might get us there
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