Half of all apparent failures of basic logical reasoning can be attributed to the fact that in everyday language, unlike formal logic, or generally means xor.
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I think we can go further. Humans seem to have serious difficulty with distributional thinking (ie thinking of concepts as distributions over a population). An obvious version is that popular media NEVER discuss distributions, only summary statistics.
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But it's worse than that. Even those who should know better don't feel, at an intuitive level, that non-linear transformations of distributions do not commute with expectations. eg in medicine there's no appreciation that E[ Utility[drug]] != Utility[ E[drug] ]
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@everytstudies how much of this would you say underpins online disagreement? -
Depends on how tightly you want to define it I suppose. Just Romeo and Juliet or including all partial narrative-related issues? Maybe varies between 10-70%?http://www.everythingstudies.com/the-romeo-and-juliet-fallacy …
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Aaaahhhh the mistaking of non-identical for mutually-exclusive drives me nuts, it haunts all explanatory discourse
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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