Perform neither experiment, continue with my slow march to the grave. Occasionally, pine for the night-have-beens, but know that certainty would not bring me happiness
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This is the answer I was waiting for
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Some combination of "how accurate and precise is each experiment" and "how much would a falsification change my behavior and its effects". There's precise math that a Bayesian could apply, but usually I just eyeball it, as things are rarely equal enough to matter in practice.
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(These tradeoffs are my bread-and-butter. Ops folks live in a world full of unknown unknowns, and have to juggle experimentation budget to keep on top of the madness.)
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1. Determine falsification of which belief is most likely to result in irrevocable changes to your life. 2. Determine if you are OK* with that change. *good luck
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The experiment which has the highest probability of changing my future behavior.
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Might be dangerous
:
"Will I like heroine?"
"Will I enjoy eating entire boxes of chocolate teddy grams?"
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Assuming no interdependencies, equal costs, and that both beliefs matter in the longer time frame, I resolve the one with the higher risk first, measuring risk as the likelihood of being wrong times the cost of being wrong.
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Some risks, though very unlikely, have such catastrophic consequence that you want deal with it. For example, wearing helmets when riding horses.
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Minimax regret.
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