You have 2 beliefs A and B, and 2 experiments E_A and E_B corresponding to them, which might falsify them. You must wait a year between the two experiments.
On what basis do you decide which experiment to prioritize? Make suitable assumptions.
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Perform neither experiment, continue with my slow march to the grave.
Occasionally, pine for the night-have-beens, but know that certainty would not bring me happiness
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Assuming no interdependencies, equal costs, and that both beliefs matter in the longer time frame, I resolve the one with the higher risk first, measuring risk as the likelihood of being wrong times the cost of being wrong.
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pick the one which either is very monetizable or unlocks/derisks something very fun.
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Construct a payoff matrix.
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I’m much more basic and rudimentary I guess if there are no obvious interdependencies than I would flip a coin to decide priority
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Taking beliefs not as isolated propositions but as parts of a web (fuzzy nodes). Then want to test first the one with the biggest effect on the global topology of the web.









