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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 10 Feb 2019
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    The most likely climate future now is: 1. Low-nuclear transition, happening too slowly to contain things below 4C. 2. Non-trivial unmanaged human and ecosystem collapse/migration 3. Lemons from lemonade from small upsides (yay more wine in WA) 4. A few permafrost black swans

    3:34 PM - 10 Feb 2019
    • 4 Retweets
    • 36 Likes
    • Jens топот котов The Legendary Dragon Alephwyr, named Alephwyr, BA an end Ian Henry Smith Nick Parker Oliver Emberton Alex Wagner 🎅🏾Basil ☃️🎵in the bleak pandemic🦠💉
    6 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
      1. Meng Weng Wong‏ @mengwong 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        CO2 effects on human cognition and health: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018312807 … The air outside in 2100 will be as bad as the air inside today. At that time, 99% of humans alive will never have known what good fresh air feels like. It’s the 12 Monkeys future.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. Simon Cooke‏ @FleetingShadow 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        Multiple choice? I'd go for (2). Our north pole ice cap decided to come on vacation and hang out this month. Thermal runaway is starting to seem inevitable, especially once the dampening effects our icecaps provide go away.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Thomas Lord‏ @thomas_lord 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @FleetingShadow @vgr

        No, he means all 4 - although 3 and 4 are quite optimistic to the extent of wishful thinking.

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      2. GreySmithereens‏ @GreySmithereens 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        While I agree with this as a function of our carbon trajectory, I think the sheer difficulty of managing civilization at above 2.5 degrees will create a significant probability of geoengineering attempts.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. GreySmithereens‏ @GreySmithereens 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @GreySmithereens @vgr

        Also, what do you mean by permafrost black swans? Many of the events that tend to fall under that are world-ending so I wonder if your model here is effectively human extinction.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Buster Friendly‏ @Buster_Friendly 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        One, Two and Four. I don't drink.

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      1. Garrett James Black‏ @garrettjblack 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        Interestingly enough few look to what I view as more dire parts of climate change, namely ocean acidification and the like. Terrestrial management isn't nearly as hard as that.

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      2. Cameron Brown‏ @gribbly 10 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @vgr

        5. Some ill-advised unilateral geoengineering attempts

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Simon Pearce‏ @SimonPearceLive 12 Feb 2019
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        Replying to @gribbly @vgr

        This will be coupled with 2. Call it 2b

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      4. End of conversation

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