CO2 effects on human cognition and health: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018312807 … The air outside in 2100 will be as bad as the air inside today. At that time, 99% of humans alive will never have known what good fresh air feels like. It’s the 12 Monkeys future.
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Multiple choice? I'd go for (2). Our north pole ice cap decided to come on vacation and hang out this month. Thermal runaway is starting to seem inevitable, especially once the dampening effects our icecaps provide go away.
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No, he means all 4 - although 3 and 4 are quite optimistic to the extent of wishful thinking.
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While I agree with this as a function of our carbon trajectory, I think the sheer difficulty of managing civilization at above 2.5 degrees will create a significant probability of geoengineering attempts.
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Also, what do you mean by permafrost black swans? Many of the events that tend to fall under that are world-ending so I wonder if your model here is effectively human extinction.
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One, Two and Four. I don't drink.
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Interestingly enough few look to what I view as more dire parts of climate change, namely ocean acidification and the like. Terrestrial management isn't nearly as hard as that.
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5. Some ill-advised unilateral geoengineering attempts
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This will be coupled with 2. Call it 2b
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