Here’s @vegan poll: Erik is an animal rights activist in 50shttps://twitter.com/vegan/status/1093315430511308800?s=20 …
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Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao
Here’s mine: tech consultant in 40shttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1093304895522795520?s=20 …
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Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Brian Skinner
Here’s Brian’s poll, physicist in 30shttps://twitter.com/gravity_levity/status/1093371495819239424?s=20 …
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Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Visakan Veerasamy
And here’s Visa’s, late 20s (?) marketer in Singaporehttps://twitter.com/visakanv/status/1093404506857979905?s=20 …
Venkatesh Rao added,
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The tech cycles explanation is not entirely convincing. Scott Alexander of
@slatestarcodex also found the effect, he’s a psychologist/rationalist community blogger and polled people at meetups etc, not twitterhttps://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/08/fight-me-psychologists-birth-order-effects-exist-and-are-very-strong/?fbclid=IwAR0nMcOQeBiOzSNFIDCSeRzOBX5vpwADfLF50GmpxkWOL-wb_CZGDUL9m1k …1 reply 1 retweet 3 likesShow this thread -
Scott thinks it might be due to STEM effects...older siblings more likely to go into STEM fields. If so, it might also contribute to twitter case. STEMmies being overrepresented here in general and probably specifically for 2 of 4 of us (Brian and me)
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I do know indirectly via other polls that my followers are strongly STEM biased. So if that’s part of the explanation, it would apply at least in my case.pic.twitter.com/QMhXldb5tZ
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Note: the bigger the sibling-set, the stronger the left-tail clipping effect. If you have many siblings, like Brian, gap between oldest and youngest will be bigger. If you are oldest/middle and joined Twitter at ~22, almost no chance that 5+ years younger sibling will be here.
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And finally, to the extent twitter attracts a “type” independent of age, even in steady state there’s going to be tail clipping. If you’re 20 and joined today, older sibling is probably also on here, but younger one likely will not join. So it’s not a 1-time early adopter effect
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A reasonable null hypothesis is that there's no birth-order effect, and it's all artifact of tech cycles.
@tomguarriello pointed me to Judith Harris' Nurture Assumption as key ref here. I haven't read it. Just noting it here in case anyone wants to dig. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nurture_Assumption …1 reply 0 retweets 2 likesShow this thread
Of course, gotta also note usual caveats: absence of evidence is not evidence of evidence, can't prove a negative, replication crisis in social psych etc., but the unfoundedness of several specific birth-order effect hypotheses does call the general idea into question as well.
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Above my statistics pay grade, but clearly if you do a convolution of a moving unstable distribution like a series of intersecting adoption curves spaced 2-5 years apart, with a symmetric one like birth order, you should get an asymmetric result.
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Replying to @vgr
Yes, caveats about social science replication and absence of evidence noted but birth order effects, one of my favorite clinical tools (back when I did that work), definitely called into question by Harris, et al
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