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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      I’ll add links to all 4 polls here. Do not RT them, to avoid cross-contamination. Feel free to run the same poll and add your poll to this thread. If you do, please mention your age (assuming your followers ages will correlate a bit with yours) and your general tweeting themes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Vegan

      Here’s @vegan poll: Erik is an animal rights activist in 50shttps://twitter.com/vegan/status/1093315430511308800?s=20 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Vegan @vegan
      Poll—What’s your birth order among siblings (include step-siblings you grew up with)? (I'm wondering if the results for vegans are different than for the general population)
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      Here’s mine: tech consultant in 40shttps://twitter.com/vgr/status/1093304895522795520?s=20 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      Poll: What’s your birth order among siblings (include step-siblings you grew up with)
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Brian Skinner

      Here’s Brian’s poll, physicist in 30shttps://twitter.com/gravity_levity/status/1093371495819239424?s=20 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Brian Skinner @gravity_levity
      Poll: What is your birth order among your siblings (include step-siblings you grew up with)
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted visa is working on his ebook

      And here’s Visa’s, late 20s (?) marketer in Singaporehttps://twitter.com/visakanv/status/1093404506857979905?s=20 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      visa is working on his ebook @visakanv
      Poll: What’s your birth order among siblings (include step-siblings you grew up with)
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Show this thread
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      The tech cycles explanation is not entirely convincing. Scott Alexander of @slatestarcodex also found the effect, he’s a psychologist/rationalist community blogger and polled people at meetups etc, not twitter https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/08/fight-me-psychologists-birth-order-effects-exist-and-are-very-strong/?fbclid=IwAR0nMcOQeBiOzSNFIDCSeRzOBX5vpwADfLF50GmpxkWOL-wb_CZGDUL9m1k …

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      Scott thinks it might be due to STEM effects...older siblings more likely to go into STEM fields. If so, it might also contribute to twitter case. STEMmies being overrepresented here in general and probably specifically for 2 of 4 of us (Brian and me)

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      I do know indirectly via other polls that my followers are strongly STEM biased. So if that’s part of the explanation, it would apply at least in my case.pic.twitter.com/QMhXldb5tZ

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      Note: the bigger the sibling-set, the stronger the left-tail clipping effect. If you have many siblings, like Brian, gap between oldest and youngest will be bigger. If you are oldest/middle and joined Twitter at ~22, almost no chance that 5+ years younger sibling will be here.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      And finally, to the extent twitter attracts a “type” independent of age, even in steady state there’s going to be tail clipping. If you’re 20 and joined today, older sibling is probably also on here, but younger one likely will not join. So it’s not a 1-time early adopter effect

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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      A reasonable null hypothesis is that there's no birth-order effect, and it's all artifact of tech cycles. @tomguarriello pointed me to Judith Harris' Nurture Assumption as key ref here. I haven't read it. Just noting it here in case anyone wants to dig. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nurture_Assumption …

      11:09 AM - 7 Feb 2019
      • 2 Likes
      • visa is working on his ebook Adolf Richter Brill 🐮
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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          Of course, gotta also note usual caveats: absence of evidence is not evidence of evidence, can't prove a negative, replication crisis in social psych etc., but the unfoundedness of several specific birth-order effect hypotheses does call the general idea into question as well.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 7 Feb 2019
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          Above my statistics pay grade, but clearly if you do a convolution of a moving unstable distribution like a series of intersecting adoption curves spaced 2-5 years apart, with a symmetric one like birth order, you should get an asymmetric result.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        4. End of conversation

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