Basically we’re seeing effect of social media tech disruption cycle being about the same as typical sibling age gaps. That’s my working hypothesis. This is an artifact of tech cycles and early adopters if anything tending young, not a true birth-order effect.
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A reasonable null hypothesis is that there's no birth-order effect, and it's all artifact of tech cycles.
@tomguarriello pointed me to Judith Harris' Nurture Assumption as key ref here. I haven't read it. Just noting it here in case anyone wants to dig. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nurture_Assumption …Show this thread -
Of course, gotta also note usual caveats: absence of evidence is not evidence of evidence, can't prove a negative, replication crisis in social psych etc., but the unfoundedness of several specific birth-order effect hypotheses does call the general idea into question as well.
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Above my statistics pay grade, but clearly if you do a convolution of a moving unstable distribution like a series of intersecting adoption curves spaced 2-5 years apart, with a symmetric one like birth order, you should get an asymmetric result.
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