Gutenberg is a bit of a Great Leap attempt on the frontend, but the backend will not so much leap as dissolve into the cloud. Not sure how that will work with aging PHP core, a 90s-era COBOL-of-the-web that is only worth keeping going at enormous cost because so much runs on it.
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If I were starting out today instead of 2007, I’d probably not pick Wordpress or Medium. I’d probably have given up on the idea of writing in public altogether and my life would have taken a more traditional engineering career path. I just don’t enjoy townie-mode writing.
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Not just speculation. Ribbonfarm circa 2007 was my second start online. My first was a community e-zine, pre-blogging, in 1998-2000. When that got too social/communitarian and too full of townies, I quit. And didn’t write online again for 7 years.
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Another data point: I was active on Quora for a couple of years, and quit right when it was shifting gears from pioneer/settler to townie. Basically, I have a writing-centric life *only* because Wordpress was at the right stage of evolution when I got the itch.
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It was indie enough for me (unlike typepad or blogger), within my technical ability (unlike the old pre-blogging ezine era with its janky cgi-bin Perl scripts or the new cloud era with its self-checkout complexity)
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What does this mean? Unless someone comes up with tools that allow *new* bloggers to *cheaply* and with *low skill* run highly indie operations rather than platform sharecropping, the blogging frontier has closed. I give this a 5% chance of happening.
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The technical+cost barrier to entry is just too high and the platform options just too cheap/convenient. Those who got into Wordpress early enough or can do a higher-cost start now, will enter an end-game phase.
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I’m starting a series exploring where we go from here, as writers with pioneer/settler inclinations who don’t like large platform communities.https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/01/31/elderblog-sutra-1/ …
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I think you underestimate Medium for ppl getting started. They bring attention which is the oxygen you need in the early days. With some technical help I found the move from medium to Wordpress pretty seamless, incl. redirecting all the URLs via DNS
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Yes but you're much more of a townie blogger, in it to build a well-defined niche audience (productivity) efficiently and a real business etc. You're the kind of person Medium is designed for.
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