2 kids found 2 similar boxes. They opened box 1. It contained a cookie. Kid 1 immediately grabbed it and started eating it, saying “the other box probably has a cookie too; that one is yours” (proposition A)
But not consciously Just as modulation of emotional states like caring, excitement etc via dopamine regulation mainly. “Probabilistic belief” maps to things like “engaged” or “apathetic” and is not determinative (other factors modulate those states too)
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There is no need for coscience to enter the picture, i agree. Living beings are wired to gamble
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They’re wired to behave in ways we tend to narrativize as “gambling” It’s like pretending cats and dogs can understand what we say in human language because they respond appropriately sometimes
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Emotional states include lossy compressions of probabilistic beliefs
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