Meant to add. I think I hit a luck recession sometime middle of last year. Lost my Midas touch. It has yet to come back. Partly because I suppose I’ve turned a bit ambivalent about wanting it back.
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Please. You’re much smarter than the vast majority of your audience. This is like groveling loudly when you make a bogey on a par 4. Keep on keepin on.
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I don’t really compare myself to my audience. That’s not particularly meaningful to do. I mostly compare myself to people who scoop me on insights I’ve been digging for. They get there faster long term because they don’t rely on luck as much as I do.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teela_Brown … ... descended from "lucky" ancestors, six generations of whom were born as a result of winning Earth's Birthright Lottery. .... she'd led such a charmed and worry-free life that she was emotionally immature and unprepared for "harsh reality."
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It me
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Is that realization part of why you now advocate mediocrity? In practice, 'cultivating habits of excellence' doesn't look too different from 'solving for being more lucky'. Both establish a limiting 'new normal'. Maybe mediocrity minus new normals trumps excellence plus them.
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Can we say that the below thread is a “case for ensemble mediocrity” whereas your tweet above is an argument for mediocrity at the level of the individual?https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1087186955467554816 …
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Do you think that luck is a real thing? Or if it’s not real but useful because optimizing for luck causes you to benefit yourself in an actually real way, what is that way?
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It’s real.
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Solving for serendipity means you'll get more good results, but less command of where those results occur. A less lucky but smarter Rao would have made a far smaller dent in the universe. Maybe it would have been deeper in one direction, but it would also have been less broad.
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