I think population density is a key component of our current capabilities - not just size. This is why cities are more efficient and enable superlinear increases in innovation and opportunity.
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research frontiers are a helluva hard barrier. China's entire civilizational play for the past 30 years has been not only catch up - which nearly every country has failed at, but the industrial and research wherewithal to even poke at the frontier.
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The key is industrialization. It doesn't matter how many people we have if we're spending all of our time growing food. It'll be educational to see how long the Mars colonies take to become self-sufficient. Probably depends upon how long we spend futzing around with social media.
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