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You should make decisions when you are 70% certain. I have a whole backlog of 69.9% certain decisions queued up.
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You should make decisions when the net expected payoff is positive when you have a normally distributed or positively skewed asymmetric option and the foreseeable tail risk is not catastrophic enough to ruin you.
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Joking aside I do have a rough philosophical notion about notions of truth being related to a calculation about advantageous outcomes, not at a superficial level but at the level of all that Wittgenstein I read and barely “got”
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