You should make decisions when you are 70% certain. I have a whole backlog of 69.9% certain decisions queued up.
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You should make decisions when the net expected payoff is positive when you have a normally distributed or positively skewed asymmetric option and the foreseeable tail risk is not catastrophic enough to ruin you.
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That feels like exactly the point at which I sit down to actually write a blog post. 70% has to be preprocessed in some form
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The threshold goes up the higher your certainty volatility
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