You should make decisions when the net expected payoff is positive when you have a normally distributed or positively skewed asymmetric option and the foreseeable tail risk is not catastrophic enough to ruin you.
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You’re a Bayesian Russian bot aren’t you?

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Nice.
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How do you know you are 70% certain?
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Kind of thought about this; Reality is it cannot be quantitatively calculated, but ‘may be’ qualitatively measured by asking questions around illegible margin. Meaning you will know if it is >70%. Everything else is 69.9%!
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The threshold goes up the higher your certainty volatility
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That feels like exactly the point at which I sit down to actually write a blog post. 70% has to be preprocessed in some form
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