what is the variance in lifespan estimate? over a long time period you probably do converge on 30 widgets/day but any given week might diverge from that significantly.
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yeah, I want to avoid modeling the stochastic process at the fine-grained level and just do a deterministic substitute... it is a longer time horizon model where week to week doesn't matter much
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The other assumptions are what you need to worry about when you remove the "instant replacement" and have to deal with lead time constraints. Then you need to calculate a safety stock level based on the mean & variance of lead time and your tolerance for stock-out events
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