Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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Technical ineffectiveness might weight toward a "false flag" type stunt, as might priors concerning incidence of hate crime and similar hoaxes. The probability that packages are intended for targets remains strong based on prima facie accounts generally being accurate. 50%.
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I’d weight ‘fair’ more like 95:5 not-false-flag:false-flag. Way more factors and candidate people in former hypothesis.
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False flag propositions are almost always wrong, so there's that. But they usually presuppose improbable (many-factored) conspiracies. A lone wolf or prankster/hoax scenario doesn't seem so implausible. The field of candidates skews depending on how you assign and weight priors.
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The Soros package was hand delivered. Possibly regular mail esp bulk like to CNN as opposed to ex president mail gets less careful scrutiny since metal parts are in fact routinely mailed around.
Hanlon’s razor applies in all cases

