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Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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Technical ineffectiveness might weight toward a "false flag" type stunt, as might priors concerning incidence of hate crime and similar hoaxes. The probability that packages are intended for targets remains strong based on prima facie accounts generally being accurate. 50%.
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Replying to and
False flag propositions are almost always wrong, so there's that. But they usually presuppose improbable (many-factored) conspiracies. A lone wolf or prankster/hoax scenario doesn't seem so implausible. The field of candidates skews depending on how you assign and weight priors.
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