Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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Replying to @vgr
Technical ineffectiveness might weight toward a "false flag" type stunt, as might priors concerning incidence of hate crime and similar hoaxes. The probability that packages are intended for targets remains strong based on prima facie accounts generally being accurate. 50%.
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Replying to @NineBandedBooks @vgr
If I remember correctly, after the UnaBomber the USPS requires that packages over a certain weight have to be given to the post office in person(steel pipes would likely meet or exceed that weight). That said I wouldn't rule out bureaucratic incompetence or political insanity.
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50/50 is a fair assessment.
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Replying to @YourAbuse @NineBandedBooks
I’d weight ‘fair’ more like 95:5 not-false-flag:false-flag. Way more factors and candidate people in former hypothesis.
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Replying to @vgr @YourAbuse
False flag propositions are almost always wrong, so there's that. But they usually presuppose improbable (many-factored) conspiracies. A lone wolf or prankster/hoax scenario doesn't seem so implausible. The field of candidates skews depending on how you assign and weight priors.
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Replying to @NineBandedBooks @vgr
Agreed, False flag accusations are often symptoms of lazy thinking. Why jump to the conclusion that a monolithic multi-level operation was carried out by the Brave New World Order, when it could just as easily be ascribed to incompetence random chaos and/or independent actors.
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That said CNN is claiming they received a package thru USPS, A package containing a dense metallic cylindrical object that somehow managed to evade the suspicions of multiple human handlers in the Postal Service,
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from the individual who received it, down through the sorters in the distribution hub, up to the final delivery-person, plus all the scanning and logging devices they use along the way… with no postmark, not enough postage, no tracking bar code, no post office stickers…
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It could be that they just misreported it, that it was deposited by a lone wolf in the mail room and completely bypassed the postal service, Journalist hoax, false flag, etc... The mind reels at the possibilities and at the end of the day who knows? These are strange time indeed.
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The Soros package was hand delivered. Possibly regular mail esp bulk like to CNN as opposed to ex president mail gets less careful scrutiny since metal parts are in fact routinely mailed around. Hanlon’s razor applies in all cases
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