Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
-
-
That is reasonable.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
False flag propositions are almost always wrong, so there's that. But they usually presuppose improbable (many-factored) conspiracies. A lone wolf or prankster/hoax scenario doesn't seem so implausible. The field of candidates skews depending on how you assign and weight priors.
-
Agreed, False flag accusations are often symptoms of lazy thinking. Why jump to the conclusion that a monolithic multi-level operation was carried out by the Brave New World Order, when it could just as easily be ascribed to incompetence random chaos and/or independent actors.
- 4 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.