Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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I have a feeling the people who are sincerely thinking false flag are the subset of trumpies who are themselves highly skilled at this sort of thing but don't realize that the median trumpie is in fact not even remotely skilled enough to do mail bombings with any competence
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Replying to @vgr
Wait, I'm confused. Wouldn't people who think false flag be people who think liberals did this to motivate fellow liberals to vote, or something? And in that case it seems like the ability of the median trumpie would matter less than the median 8d chess lib, right?
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Replying to @JustisDevan
To see incompetence as evidence of liberal intent for packages to be intercepted you’d have to see own side as actually competent
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Replying to @vgr
Ahh, okay, so the idea is "the nut jobs on my side would have succeeded, therefore this failure was an intentional PR move". Huh. Now I wonder if your hypothesis is correct. As a non-Trumpie and non-elite I guess it's hard for me to model their mindset.
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I think the false flag theorists are also disproportionately likely to be gun nuts/mall ninjas/“tactical” types I think. Even the term is a military term of art that average literate people don’t know.
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