Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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Technical ineffectiveness might weight toward a "false flag" type stunt, as might priors concerning incidence of hate crime and similar hoaxes. The probability that packages are intended for targets remains strong based on prima facie accounts generally being accurate. 50%.
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Technical ineffectiveness could also be due to wanting to send a message to intended targets without intent to actually kill (and the shitstorm that would rain down on them). A sort of cheap intimidation.
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Not my first impression, but sure. I'm not a very good Bayesian.
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The theory behind action need not actually work on the intended audience as intended 🙂
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