Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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Wait, I'm confused. Wouldn't people who think false flag be people who think liberals did this to motivate fellow liberals to vote, or something? And in that case it seems like the ability of the median trumpie would matter less than the median 8d chess lib, right?
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To see incompetence as evidence of liberal intent for packages to be intercepted you’d have to see own side as actually competent
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McVeigh wasn't median though. Nor was Ted Kaczynski.
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Not everyone can be the Unabomber.
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