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Bayesians: absent results of the investigation, how would you estimate the prior probabilities of the bomb mailings being for the intended targets vs. false flag?
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I have a feeling the people who are sincerely thinking false flag are the subset of trumpies who are themselves highly skilled at this sort of thing but don't realize that the median trumpie is in fact not even remotely skilled enough to do mail bombings with any competence
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Wait, I'm confused. Wouldn't people who think false flag be people who think liberals did this to motivate fellow liberals to vote, or something? And in that case it seems like the ability of the median trumpie would matter less than the median 8d chess lib, right?
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