I have a feeling the people who are sincerely thinking false flag are the subset of trumpies who are themselves highly skilled at this sort of thing but don't realize that the median trumpie is in fact not even remotely skilled enough to do mail bombings with any competence
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I don't know, but I know we'll disagree no matter how much of this process we observe https://www.nber.org/papers/w12648
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Technical ineffectiveness might weight toward a "false flag" type stunt, as might priors concerning incidence of hate crime and similar hoaxes. The probability that packages are intended for targets remains strong based on prima facie accounts generally being accurate. 50%.
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Technical ineffectiveness could also be due to wanting to send a message to intended targets without intent to actually kill (and the shitstorm that would rain down on them). A sort of cheap intimidation.
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False flag bomb mailings seems like the kind of tortured explanation you come up with when you don't want people to acknowledge the obvious true one. My prior that it's real is (conservatively) 98% or higher.
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(Small caveat: not actually an active Bayesian, I just speak the lingo.)
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