Sometimes it is easier to believe a more complicated theory because the less complicated theory requires more courage to believe.
So smarter people have to work harder to be courageous. A lot of crackpottery and consipracy theorizing is simply smart people lacking courage.
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Careful. Most people err on the side of the crowd, no matter how simple or complex their claims. There are all kinds of fallacies, and few are trained to handle complex questions independently.
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I don’t understand this idea of beliefs requiring courage. We don’t choose what we believe....maybe the courage comes in admitting (perhaps to ourselves) what it is that we believe?
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On the other hand a simple model often is too simple to track what is really happening





