What are the chances that a 70% right answer and a 99% right answer are meaningfully different?
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Depends. There's an intermediary company that makes money by offering to pay invoices earlier in return for a moving discount calculated and updated frequently for eg.
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This is very applicable to software estimation. People systematically underestimate the opportunity cost of estimation activities themselves. Also, bad estimation assumptions are arguably at least as dangerous as many of the hidden risks that estimates are meant to flesh out.
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I worked with an agile delivery manager who scrapped estimation and instead used monte carlo modelling based on the past throughput of stories. Brilliant system, but of course his higher ups didn't 'get it' so when he left it was back to finger-in-the-air estimates again
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You could let people bet on it. A precision futures market.
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reminds me of the IARPA forecasting challenge described in SUPERFORECASTING, where each day's prediction counts the same (right?). There is probably a better allocation of these daily points related to what's being predicted... but are any marginal thresholds generalizable?
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Like a "net present value" for accuracy
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Exactly what I was thinking. Hardest part: How would one calculate the discount rate?
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