In the short term, forecasting the future is the same thing as forecasting the survival of existing large institutions. In the medium term (hardest), it is forecasting the kinds of new institutions that might emerge. In the long term, it is forecasting physical resource balances.
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Replying to
what is the eponymous law again, everything is always halfway through its lifespan?
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oh is that the definition of the Lindy effect? couldn't remember
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