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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 20 Aug 2018
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    iirc the long-term explanation of wildfires is that building human habitations too close to natural fire zones leads to over-aggressive control of small fires leading to underbrush build up over years and bigger fires. Is this roughly correct?

    9:27 PM - 20 Aug 2018
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    • Matt Giles Brian Heligman 🎙 Piyush Maverick Tainguriya Customer Support 🎙 🤧🌎 mori Benjamin de_merindol KevinKrease Bruno Valle
    16 replies 2 retweets 26 likes
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      2. Rational Bot‏ @Rationalbot 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        Pretty much what I remember reading about this issue before "muh climate" became the default explanation for literally anything that happens on, or under, the unpaved parts of the Earth's surface.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @Rationalbot

        Climate definitely contributes as longer hot/dry spells exacerbate the situation. Climate change in general is like stress in the human body. It increases the probability of certain kinds of extreme scenario.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. Jody Shenn still doesn’t trust 2020‏ @JodyShenn 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        pretty sure climate change and related droughts also have been playing a role

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @JodyShenn

        Yup, they've acted as a compounding factor on base dynamics.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jack McClure‏ @JackMMcClure 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        Roughly yes. Fires would still happen without suppression but severity has increased. Akin to playing with regulation and the financial markets

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      2. Varun Adibhatla‏ @vr00n 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        Kinda like an inversion of anti-fragility no? Antifragility assumes constant corrections to a system to make it more resilient over time. This is helicopter parenting equivalent of enviro stewardship leading to net fragility.

        1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vr00n

        Yeah, interesting thought to tease out there. The suppression of smaller fires doesn't induce hormesis but actually compromises defenses at higher doses.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Ariel Greenwood‏ @greenwoodae 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        Partially; fire suppression policies and limits on logging/thinning (some good, some with unintended consequences) and mismanagement of grassland ecosystems are big factors in less populated areas

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      1. Ariel Greenwood‏ @greenwoodae 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        To me the biggest contrast in the emerging "fire vs. civilization" narrative is that fire moves but settlements don't.

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      1. Ariel Greenwood‏ @greenwoodae 20 Aug 2018
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        Replying to @vgr

        By this, I don't just underscore that fixed structures are at higher risk of burning; I mean that the land encompassed by any given ownership entity tends to be managed less nimbly and holistically relative to its surrounding environs.

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