I think passenger ships are going to make a comeback at some point in the next 50y. International air travel is one of the few big climate impact vectors with no reasonable substitute. Domestic you have possibility of better all-electric high-speed rail...
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Wikipedia has a 2-4 range on multiplier https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_aviation#Total_climate_effects …
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But yeah, 10% is sort of my working estimate of a worst-case bound for quick and dirty thinking. Probably too pessimistic. I’d say 5% would be the optimistic bound which is still a nice wedge worth working on. Most things people talk about are like dumb 0.5% wedges.
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The analogy is off. Plastic straw bs is based on misinformation around a rounding-error part of a problem (0.5% of oceanic plastic waste)
Air travel is like 10% under proper accounting, and the thinking around it is mostly correct.